The last week of Stage 1 of the Overwatch League is about to start and the battle for one of the top 3 spots that grant access to the Stage 1 Title Matches will certainly be fierce. With two teams already qualified (London Spitfire [7W-1L] and New York Excelsior [7W-1L]), there’s a lot of competition for the 3rd remaining spot, as 5 different teams could potentially claim it: Seoul Dynasty (6W-2L), Houston Outlaws (5W-3L), Boston Uprising (5W-3L), Los Angeles Valiant (5W-3L) and Philadelphia Fusion (5W-3L).
Here are the matches and predictions for week 5 (February 7-10):
Shanghai Dragons (0W-8L) vs. Dallas Fuel (1W-7L)
As their current track records show, both of these teams lost almost every single game they’ve played up until this point. Dallas Fuel have a slightly better overall score, so they’re arguably more likely to win this battle of the outcasts. But, contrary to what the bookies’ odds say, the real odds favor them only slightly.
San Francisco Shock (3W-5L) vs. Los Angeles Gladiators (3W-5L)
Los Angeles Gladiators is a significantly better team and will likely win this dispute. Their victories have been a lot more convincing than their opponent’s and came against stronger teams.
Los Angeles Valiant (5W-3L) vs. Seoul Dynasty (6W-2L)
Whoever wins this match has the highest chance of claiming the 3rd qualification spot for the Stage 1 Title Matches. And based on what we’ve seen so far, Seoul Dynasty has an 80% chance of emerging victorious.
Philadelphia Fusion (5W-3L) vs. Boston Uprising (5W-3L)
Boston Uprising are clear favorites in this confrontation. Last week they defeated Los Angeles Valiant without dropping a single game, while Los Angeles Valiant defeated Philadelphia Fusion with the exact same score. So the strength difference between these two teams is quite big at this point.
Florida Mayhem (1W-7L) vs. New York Excelsior (7W-1L)
This will end up either 4-0 or 3-0 in favor of New York Excelsior. There is absolutely nothing that Florida Mayhem can do to change this outcome. They are lightyears behind their opponents at every aspect of the game.
London Spitfire (7W-1L) vs. Houston Outlaws (5W-3L)
London Spitfire should be able to win this, even though the map scores might be close. Houston Outlaws are a very strong team but unfortunately for them they always seem to struggle when facing top opposition.
Los Angeles Gladiators (3W-5L) vs. Dallas Fuel (1W-7L)
LA Gladiators are a much stronger team, so unless something completely unexpected happens, they should be able to win this match quite easily.
Seoul Dynasty (6W-2L) vs. San Francisco Shock (3W-5L)
If San Francisco Shock manage to take more than one map off Seoul Dynasty, the result will be shocking. In principle they shouldn’t win a single game, but let’s just assume that Seoul Dynasty will have a really bad day and will drop one.
Los Angeles Valiant (5W-3L) vs. Shanghai Dragons (0W-8L)
This will end with an easy 4-0 victory for Los Angeles Valiant. The problem with this match is that the odds are so low that you should probably bet on the individual games instead of the overall result.
New York Excelsior (7W-1L) vs. London Spitfire (7W-1L)
These teams seem quite evenly matched, but last week’s result from the London Spitfire vs. Seoul Dynasty match (score 4-0), hints at a London Spitfire victory.
Houston Outlaws (5W-3L) vs. Boston Uprising (5W-3L)
The bookies have assessed this match completely wrong in my opinion. They put the odds at around 1.50-2.40 in Houston Outlaws’ favor, when the reality is that Boston Uprising are clear favorites to win this dispute. If you’re looking to bet on any of these matches, this is the one that yields the highest potential rewards.
Florida Mayhem (1W-7L) vs. Philadelphia Fusion (5W-3L)
Philadelphia Fusion will almost certainly mop the floor with Florida Mayhem in this match. These two teams seem to belong to entirely different leagues right now.