The Overwatch League Stage 3 Week 4 Betting Predictions

The Overwatch League is about to enter its 4th week of Stage 3 and as always, 12 matches will be played over the course of 4 days. A wide variety of betting opportunities are available this week but before I start analyzing them, let’s take a look at the current standings table.

Stage 3 standings table

  • 1st place: Boston Uprising (6 WINS – 0 LOSSES)
  • 2nd place: Los Angeles Valiant (5 WINS – 1 LOSS)
  • 3rd place: New York Excelsior (5 WINS – 1 LOSS)
  • 4th place: San Francisco Shock (4 WINS – 2 LOSSES)
  • 5th place: Los Angeles Gladiators (3 WINS – 3 LOSSES)
  • 6th place: Seoul Dynasty (3 WINS – 3 LOSSES)
  • 7th place: Philadelphia Fusion (3 WINS – 3 LOSSES)
  • 8th place: Houston Outlaws (3 WINS – 3 LOSSES)
  • 9th place: London Spitfire (2 WINS – 4 LOSSES)
  • 10th place: Dallas Fuel (1 WIN – 5 LOSSES)
  • 11th place: Florida Mayhem (1 WIN – 5 LOSSES)
  • 12th place: Shanghai Dragons (0 WINS – 6 LOSSES)

Betting predictions

Shanghai Dragons (0 W – 6 L) vs. Boston Uprising (6 W – 0 L)

Match date: April 25th

Shanghai Dragons is on a 26 losing streak, while Boston Uprising is currently the strongest team in the league. Because of this, the result of this match is almost predetermined. Boston Uprising should have no problem getting a 4 – 0 victory over Shanghai Dragons. The worst case scenario in this encounter is a 3 – 1 result for the Boston team.

Los Angeles Valiant (5 W – 1 L) vs. Houston Outlaws (3 W – 3 L)

Match date: April 25th

In its first 5 matches, Los Angeles Valiant crushed every opponent in a convincing way. Seoul Dynasty, Shanghai Dragons, San Francisco Shock, Dallas Fuel and Los Angeles Gladiators experienced Valiant’s might and fell quickly (the first 3 without winning a single map). In its 6th match however, LA Valiant suffered a close defeat at the hands of London Spitfire.

After finishing Stage 1 on the podium and getting a mediocre result in Stage 2 (7th place), Houston Outlaws started Stage 3 with some poor results and a victory against London Spitfire. However, keep in mind that these bad results came against the 3 strongest teams in OWL at the moment: Boston Uprising, New York Excelsior and Philadelphia Fusion. And 2 of these 3 matches were actually really close (score 2 – 3). Subsequently, we can conclude that in spite of its poor start, Houston Outlaws is actually a fairly strong team. Last week, Outlaws defeated 2 weak opponents, Dallas Fuel and Florida Mayhem, getting their Stage 3 record up to 3 wins and 3 losses.

The head to head record between these two teams favors Los Angeles Valiant, who won their last and only direct match against Houston Outlaws without dropping a single map. Overall performance throughout the Overwatch League also favors LA Valiant, but only slightly. Current form statistics clearly favor Valiant as well.

Dallas Fuel (1 W – 5 L) vs. Florida Mayhem (1 W – 5 L)

This is a battle between two very weak teams and the result is fairly unpredictable, even though Florida Mayhem is slightly favored to win. Both sides have just one win a piece (against Shanghai Dragons and with the exact same score, 3 – 1), and a lot of losses against opponents of various strengths. The only thing that slightly differentiates them is the head to head record. Here, Florida Mayhem leads with a score of 1 – 0.

Los Angeles Gladiators (3 W – 3 L) vs. London Spitfire (2 W – 4 L)

Los Angeles Gladiators had a bad start in Stage 3 and suffered a shocking defeat at the hands of San Francisco Shock. But then it went on to win against Dallas Fuel, Shanghai Dragons and even Seoul Dynasty. Last week however, Gladiators lost two big matches, against Los Angeles Valiant and New York Excelsior. However, both of these matches were very close (score 2 – 3), proving that the team is deceptively strong in spite of its mediocre results.

London Spitfire is not doing too well at the moment, although it won last week against Los Angeles Valiant, a team which in turn had defeated Los Angeles Gladiators the exact same week.

Overall performance throughout the Overwatch League favors London Spitfire. The head to head results between these two teams favor Los Angeles Gladiators (1 – 0). Stage 3 statistics favor Gladiators as well. All things considered, I still think that Spitfire will win this match. And that’s because of the great form they showed even in their defeats against the top teams. They practically almost always came close to winning and only lost the match in game 5.

San Francisco Shock (4 W – 2 L) vs. New York Excelsior (5 W – 1 L)

New York Excelsior is the strongest team in OWL in terms of overall results, and is also in excellent shape at the moment, sitting at number 3 in the Stage 3 standings table with 5 wins and 1 loss (against Boston Uprising).

No matter what statistics you want to look at, New York Excelsior is the clear favorite in this match. Its head to head record against San Francisco Shock is 1 – 0 (score 4 – 0). Its recent form statistics are much better. Its overall statistics are much better.

Seoul Dynasty (3 W – 3 L) vs. Philadelphia Fusion (3 W – 3 L)

Although it somehow lost 3 matches so far in Stage 3, Philadelphia Fusion is still a much stronger team than Seoul Dynasty at the moment and will likely win this match without too many problems. Seoul Dynasty has a few things going in its favor (overall performance and head to head results), but its recent form has been disastrous. Meanwhile, Philadelphia Fusion has proved its strength even against the top teams.

Magister Ludi
Magister Ludi